E-News & Song 2022.02活動報告
開催日時 2月10日(木) 午後2時～4時 出席者8名
開催方式 Google Meetによるリモート
記録 村上剛康 (2月度リーダー)
主題 “中央銀行”
使用した教材 “Going nowhere: Central banks face inflation fears . The belief that the rise in prices is transitory is fading fast” (The Japan Times Editorial -Jan. 2022)
今回取り上げた主題は、コロナ禍、需要の回復基調、インフレ、景気後退、失業の未解消などまだら模様の経済状況下で「手詰まる」中央銀行です。各国の中央銀行は自国の事情により繰り出す手法の方向感が異なり始めている。そんな中にあって我が国の日本銀行は今や常態化した「異常事態」モードを続けています。そこで我がE-News & Songsサークルとしては、日銀を大きな枠で捉えて「一体、どうなの？」と検討してみました。
l FACTS
・日本銀行の資産内容 （2021.3現在）
資産の部の合計714兆円 （内、A：長期国債532兆円、B：上場投資信託36兆円）
純資産4.5兆円に対し約160倍の資産を保有、上記A、B合計に対しては約130倍。
・単純計算では、全保有資産714兆円のわずか0.7%が評価減となれば純資産が底をつく。
・日本銀行の資本金は1億円で55％を政府が保有、45％は天皇や財閥系企業が保有。
・総裁、副総裁と6人の審議委員、計8名がとてつもない重大な金融政策を決定。
・独立行政法人とはいえ立法権、行政権、司法権という国の権力の影響を受けている。
l 我が国の財政的有事の際の見通し
・金融機関の機能麻痺 Functional paralysis of financial institutions
・金融資産の下落 Fall of financial assets
・円暴落と貿易収支悪化 Precipitation of Yen & deterioration of trade balance
・企業経営の悪化・不況 Business bust, Depression
・超インフレと失業者の増大 Hyper- inflation and rampant unemployment
・海外機関投資家の撤退 Withdrawal of foreign institutional investors
・国家経済破綻へのトリガー Triggering national insolvency
・犯罪者と自殺者数の増大 Increasing number of criminals and suicide
・世界の政治経済への悪影響 Definitive impact on the world politics & economy
l 日銀（及び政府）の金融・財政上の３課題
①財政正常化へのかじ取り、②政府との適切な距離感維持、③円安依存体質からの脱却
l 検討課題A 「日本で市場にクラッシュ（暴落）がもし起きたとしたらどうなるのでしょうか？」
Should there be any crash in our market, what will we encounter?
Aに対する意見
To put it shortly, two phenomena will happen. ①The mysterious and favorable Japanese finances will turn into a real nightmare ②” Heaven’s vengeance is slow but sure” (天網恢恢疎にして漏らさず)will just come true. In other words, Japanese fiscal reckoning has been long overdue. It’s been no wonder that it already had run bankrupt. The problems are immense national debts and predictions that those will surely only get worse. Even the remote possibility of redemption is out of sight and an exceptionalism theory like MMT is out of the question. We must not be deluded by such a theory. We should compose ourselves and heed that the hyper-inflation (over 1 trillion times higher) in Germany in 1920s was real.
Thus a crush in Japan will ruthlessly spell bankruptcy of Bank of Japan and definitive loss of credibility in Yen. Undoubtedly Bank of Japan and Japanese Government will reap hand in hand what they have sowed. For Bank of Japan has engaged in unprincipled and prohibited financial measures as a central bank in more than decade. Those are an immense and fraudulent purchase of national bonds effectively direct from Government and the preposterous stock purchase dubbed as PKO, Price Keeping Operation.
l 検討課題B 私は、日銀はいろいろな要因から「冷や汗」を流し続けていると思います。この際現下の事態から少し遠ざかって以下に関して思考と想像をめぐらして下さい。
Bank of Japan seems to have continued in the perverted state and they are fully aware that. Apart from current state, please consider and imagine concerning the below mentioned.
B-1 「異常な手法や禁じ手を繰り出す日銀は、頼れる中央銀行なのでしょうか？」
Is Bank of Japan who have contrived and carried out the aberrant or forbidden measures trustworthy as a central bank?
B-1に対する意見
No other central bank of G7 countries is so irresponsible in its duty as Bank of Japan.
I can think of nothing less reasonable than the policies which Bank of Japan has practiced. And Bank of Japan is such a central bank that has relinquished its independence on its own accord from its government.
Everyone knows the prime duty of a central bank is to preserve the credibility in its own currency. Patently, to date Bank of Japan has just run counter to such foremost duty.
There is no reason to trust in Bank of Japan. In a nutshell it has not been a solution, it has only been a problem.
B-2 「日本の財政/円の信用はいつまでも持つものでしょうか？」
Could we expect everlasting sustenance of Japan’s national finance and confidence in Yen?
B-2に対する意見
We are on two big time bombs at the present. One is the immense national debts and the other is a coming huge earthquake in the central and western part of Japan. And these two have something in common. They are massive, out of control and imminent.
In the worst case scenario, these two things may occur concurrently. But we may ignore such a coincidence. Nonetheless it is important to note the massive earthquake will surely provoke collapse of Japan’s finances in its wake. That is for Government will have to borrow hundreds of trillions of Yen on top of the already piled-up debts for the recovery from the catastrophe. Even if the above two things don’t occur simultaneously, once the earthquake happens, the result will be no different from what will happen in the case of the same time.
Some seismologists say the massive earthquake is predicted to occur at 2035 with plus minus 5years. However fortunate Japan may be in the forthcoming future, Yen will not be able to stand beyond year 2040.
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