E-News & Songs – 2017年12月度学習レポート 当月リーダー 佐藤一雄
Unrest in Riyadh ripples through the Middle East (Japan Times Editorial)
11月8日付けジャパンタイムズ社説「中東に広がるリアドの騒動」の分析と議論を行った。
産油国世界ランキング一位のサウジアラビアのモハメド・ビン・サルマン皇太子は長期的経済改革を打ち出すと同時に公正な歳入確保を図るため約1万人の王族の内17人の王子と複数の現職及び前任の閣僚と企業経営者を汚職の嫌疑で拘束した。サルマン皇太子は今や汚職追放最高委員会の長としての権力を強化している。彼の狙いは国内の政治基盤を固めると同時にサウジアラビアをペルシャ湾及び中東周辺15ｹ国における最も強大な支配勢力に定着させることであると思われる。しかし、仇敵イランによるイエーメンでのサウジアラビア親派に対するかく乱作戦および親サウジであるレバノンのサード・ハリリ首相の退陣などその行く手は険しい。一方サウジの失業率は１２％（若者達の失業が顕著）に達し貿易収支はＧＤＰの9.3%の赤字である為景気浮揚策が必要不可欠となっている。経済再生の中核は国立石油会社であるアラムコ社（株価総額1千億ドル＝約11.2兆円と試算されている）の5%の初期株式公募であろう。又このような背景の下サルマン皇太子が目指す経済再生、脱石油産業、限定的民主主義の具現化と権力の統合化を実現させるためには宗派を超えたイランとの和解、周辺諸国との平和外交と経済の自由化が必要となろう。最近トランプ大統領が発表したエルサレムのイスラエルへの帰属と同国の公式首都としての承認問題やレバノンの反政府勢力に助勢するヒズボラの武力再燃問題などサウジアラビアが穏健派のエジプトなどと共に解決に貢献できそうな局面もいくつかある。いずれにせよ化石燃料の掘削と利権で世界屈指の富裕国となったサウジアラビアが先端技術や先端産業へ急速にシフトできるなどと言うことは現時点では想像すらできない。一方、男女の社会的差別を先ず改善して未来を担う若者たちの主張や提案を受け入れる進歩的政府が出現しない限りサウジアラビアの政治と経済改革はいつまで経っても富裕層対象の小規模なものに終始する可能性がある。
We analyzed and discussed an editorial of Japan Times titled “Unrest in Riyadh ripples through the Middle East dated Nov. 8, 2017.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia who is still ranked at first place among oil-producing nations revealed plans to reform the nation’s economy in a long run and at the same instant, he made a mass arrest of at least 17 princes out of approx. 10,000 royal families, current and former government ministers and business executives on corruption charge so as to diversify and ensure the nation’s incorruptible revenues. Mohammed bin Salman is consolidating the political power as the leader of the corruption “supreme committees”. His likely targets are to strengthen the foundation of his domestic administration and simultaneously to make Saudi Arabia the dominant power in the Persian Gulf and surrounding 15 countries. However, such problems head his way as destabilizing tactic in Yemen by Iran – a hostile nation against Saudi Arabia, the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri – a sympathizer for Saudi Arabia and so forth. Meanwhile current rate of unemployment in Saudi Arabia is 12%. (Joblessness among younger generations is evident) and deficit is running at 9.3% of GDP. Thus, Saudi Arabia needs an economic boost. The core factor of the nation’s economic renewal would be an initial public offering of a 5% holding in Aramco – the Saudi national oil company (The total equity value is estimated as $100 billion (Approx. 11,200 billion yen). Against this background, the nation’s rapprochement with Iran beyond religious denomination, peaceful diplomacy and liberalization of the economy with surrounding countries will be needed to achieve economic recovery, breaking with oil business, consolidation of the authority and embodiment of limited level of democracy. There are some phases that Saudi Arabia could possibly to resolve such issues, jointly with Egypt and other moderates, as belongingness of Jerusalem to Israel and recognition of the city as its official capital that President Trump lately announced as well as a renewed use of armed force by Hezbollah to support contra in Lebanon, etc. At any rate and this moment, we can’t even imagine that Saudi Arabia who became one of the wealthiest countries in the world basking in the benefits from rigging of fossil fuel and relative concessions could exponentially shift its mode to universe of advanced technologies and forefront industry. Consequently, reformation of politics and economics in Saudi Arabia will be seamlessly a matter of speculation resulting in a minor betterment primarily for plutocracy or well-off classes unless improvement of economic and social disparity between men and women, progressive government who can absorb assertion, opinions and questions of younger generations, comes into being.
